Ledger / Prediction #2063 · narrative · 6H

Will "gen" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "gen" (19 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -2.701319001938554,
      "diversity": -0.22941176470588232
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10430929684352107
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "gen",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
    "share60": 0.02410901467505241,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 0.0671169269734065,
    "diversity": 0.5588235294117647,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998500462962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10430929684352107
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.011

Log loss0.110

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00046221400508435407,
  "shareRatio": 0.1468905444642013,
  "totalAfter": 8654,
  "shareBefore": 0.003493931592497242,
  "totalBefore": 10876,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "gen" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.05% (-87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "gen" (6H). momentum contributed -2.70 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe6e070fe992bb523409bc8361c3d2fa29b12f04f4736b782e13d365a31babbb0

Previous hash94ab33f3e363c02c7adc53e9fa4b05ad06c9a7735d980088a4b3c7378d9f832c