Ledger / Prediction #2064 · narrative · 6H
Will "human" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "human" (5 distinct creators, rank #199). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.
Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.865107770139665,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.33279393888816555
},
"features": {
"term": "human",
"rank60": 199,
"share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
"share60": 0.003843466107617051,
"total15": 308,
"total60": 1430,
"momentum": 0.42100617828773174,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 223,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998500462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.33279393888816555
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.445
Log loss1.100
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004391033048301364,
"shareRatio": 3.5840083873590514,
"totalAfter": 8654,
"shareBefore": 0.001195292386906951,
"totalBefore": 10876,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 38,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 13
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 33% that "human" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.12% → 0.44% (+267%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "human" (6H). momentum contributed -0.87 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f878c009ecdb053c9e2cb2ed3993239de0b63089a1d4d43734dc7747ab2eee4dPrevious hash
e6e070fe992bb523409bc8361c3d2fa29b12f04f4736b782e13d365a31babbb0