Will "wormhole" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "wormhole" (16 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -0.5326677970463906,
      "diversity": -0.3514285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3552353307300834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wormhole",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.014563106796116505,
    "share60": 0.02480782669461915,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 0.5870367838096541,
    "diversity": 0.45714285714285713,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999625115740741
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3552353307300834
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0030277440217503244,
  "shareRatio": 3.5819066649029123,
  "totalAfter": 48551,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008362202843148966,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 147,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity