GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2067 · narrative · 24H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1430 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (24 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.69×.

Made2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": 0.5251469921963225,
      "diversity": 0.029032258064516103
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.52845193610306
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0372168284789644,
    "share60": 0.0220125786163522,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1430,
    "momentum": 1.6907073509015258,
    "diversity": 0.7741935483870968,
    "launches15": 11,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 223,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9991002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999625115740741
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.52845193610306
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.222
Log loss0.638
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.029494758089431732,
  "shareRatio": 1.77052073201197,
  "totalAfter": 48551,
  "shareBefore": 0.016652729661928083,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1432,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 697
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.67% → 2.95% (+77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (24H). momentum contributed +0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash56ce768fbb44e9bb4f31b47f7c58f4ff9e16a61211f4117be691c37c1b2275ee
Previous hash0fbaef29297984e733a46b1b3354d1ee87593f725ae04c66a540466c3ef90b46