Ledger / Prediction #2073 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (39 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.21×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.19415797541944652,
      "diversity": 0.055102040816326525
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.572392046698329
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.041254125412541254,
    "share60": 0.03397391901166781,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 1.2142880954762143,
    "diversity": 0.7959183673469388,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.572392046698329
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.183

Log loss0.558

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.046057222609909285,
  "shareRatio": 1.3724765084597723,
  "totalAfter": 1433,
  "shareBefore": 0.03346994535519126,
  "totalBefore": 1464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.35% → 4.61% (+38%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). volume contributed +0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashede9f3da0de1a48869cac3f48534fa399189b12f41772aa48daa6ddefbc1565b

Previous hashe141fcdb39351443c0395e7778e5cf9bb3a6d349f51d6b3336072dc5e6072fdf