Ledger / Prediction #2074 · narrative · 1H

Will "god" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "god" (24 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.01577232474673045,
      "diversity": -0.07714285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4826359830912646
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "god",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.024752475247524754,
    "share60": 0.024365133836650652,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 1.0158973643843259,
    "diversity": 0.6857142857142857,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4826359830912646
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.233

Log loss0.659

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00418702023726448,
  "shareRatio": 0.18705678983243954,
  "totalAfter": 1433,
  "shareBefore": 0.02390710382513661,
  "totalBefore": 1464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "god" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.39% → 0.42% (-82%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "god" (1H). diversity contributed -0.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1ead47f756c4b793c5d5a6d463429ad180a04c42c21ce373238ee2ce3a65b6bf

Previous hashede9f3da0de1a48869cac3f48534fa399189b12f41772aa48daa6ddefbc1565b