Ledger / Prediction #2075 · narrative · 1H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (25 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.00×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.0019946400679154977,
      "diversity": 0.2538461538461539
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5496236754726932
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.018151815181518153,
    "share60": 0.01818805765271105,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 0.9980073479046019,
    "diversity": 0.9615384615384616,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 25
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5496236754726932
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.302

Log loss0.798

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016050244242847175,
  "shareRatio": 0.9059630009736586,
  "totalAfter": 1433,
  "shareBefore": 0.017759562841530054,
  "totalBefore": 1464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.78% → 1.61% (-10%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "chain" (1H). diversity contributed +0.25 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash42aad0fc62afb248a607b96c4bc24fca8b20a5791a7ccff7093a1aa070fcaf8c

Previous hash1ead47f756c4b793c5d5a6d463429ad180a04c42c21ce373238ee2ce3a65b6bf