Ledger / Prediction #2076 · narrative · 1H

Will "local" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 38% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "local" (4 distinct creators, rank #140). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -0.03903591174826468,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37687095669236126
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "local",
    "rank60": 140,
    "share15": 0.0049504950495049506,
    "share60": 0.005147563486616335,
    "total15": 302,
    "total60": 1456,
    "momentum": 0.9617161716171617,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957722222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37687095669236126
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.142

Log loss0.473

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00209351011863224,
  "shareRatio": 0.4767549976754998,
  "totalAfter": 1433,
  "shareBefore": 0.0047814207650273225,
  "totalBefore": 1464,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 38% that "local" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.21% (-56%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "local" (1H). diversity contributed -0.21 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash64d35c39a96d9d6129b8c62f93b39a69694701c642c28b6347a6d5b44b0a3e7c

Previous hash42aad0fc62afb248a607b96c4bc24fca8b20a5791a7ccff7093a1aa070fcaf8c