Ledger / Prediction #2077 · narrative · 6H
Will "god" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1456 launches in the last hour referenced "god" (24 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.
Made2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 0.01577232474673045,
"diversity": -0.07714285714285714
},
"rawProbability": 0.4653957071111255
},
"features": {
"term": "god",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.024752475247524754,
"share60": 0.024365133836650652,
"total15": 302,
"total60": 1456,
"momentum": 1.0158973643843259,
"diversity": 0.6857142857142857,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9957722222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992953703703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4653957071111255
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.217
Log loss0.626
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0013824884792626728,
"shareRatio": 0.39431539546733646,
"totalAfter": 8680,
"shareBefore": 0.003604629102637071,
"totalBefore": 10542,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 12,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 38
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 47% that "god" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.14% (-62%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "god" (6H). diversity contributed -0.08 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e076b899e6e162a4d203687a86d576fe57aa5b14d559c7b297d0201fcbe4b1b4Previous hash
64d35c39a96d9d6129b8c62f93b39a69694701c642c28b6347a6d5b44b0a3e7c