Ledger / Prediction #2089 · narrative · 1H

Will "sludge" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "sludge" (38 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.94×.

Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": 1.3718678814096672,
      "diversity": -0.1524590163934426
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7849288642919307
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sludge",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.16015625,
    "share60": 0.040620871862615586,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 3.9427083333333335,
    "diversity": 0.6229508196721312,
    "launches15": 61,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7849288642919307
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.616

Log loss1.537

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007451564828614009,
  "shareRatio": 0.18788585901818117,
  "totalAfter": 1342,
  "shareBefore": 0.04131147540983607,
  "totalBefore": 1525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "sludge" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.13% → 0.75% (-82%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "sludge" (1H). momentum contributed +1.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "sludge". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf538312442c9e7d1d557ddef6186cf931ed34b17f510c9e6277675ddf389c367

Previous hash8a81d7f1c5d8678af6e51379c66ad9915fd6f23523d436a32ce0a9555f61ac10