Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (22 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": -0.2810551429641719,
      "diversity": 0.24782608695652175
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4739434737355999
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.01171875,
    "share60": 0.015521796565389696,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 0.7549867021276596,
    "diversity": 0.9565217391304348,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926836111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4739434737355999
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.029061102831594635,
  "shareRatio": 1.9098873591989989,
  "totalAfter": 1342,
  "shareBefore": 0.015081967213114755,
  "totalBefore": 1525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 39,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity