Ledger / Prediction #2095 · narrative · 6H

Will "reserve" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "reserve" (5 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -0.8566092394306566,
      "diversity": -0.7125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23085935415761027
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "reserve",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.009114583333333334,
    "share60": 0.021466314398943198,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 0.42459935897435896,
    "diversity": 0.15625,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987806018518518
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23085935415761027
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.053

Log loss0.263

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032102728731942215,
  "shareRatio": 0.9722123920270748,
  "totalAfter": 8722,
  "shareBefore": 0.0033122260107160254,
  "totalBefore": 10265,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "reserve" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.32% (-3%). PARTIAL.

— "reserve" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash19da55d5fa98a8f5760e3ca3818a6e54ac61df5eb669bbffd05f6eab8e5f410f

Previous hash0eef9d69158f4c7df13b365c1f13d88288ad6a96dd2190183c4e6dc22a2a4efb