Ledger / Prediction #2099 · narrative · 24H
Will "fucking" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
22 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "fucking" (17 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.
Made2026-10-12 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 05:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22224068113863232,
"momentum": -1.3361823196925429,
"diversity": 0.027272727272727247
},
"rawProbability": 0.30083297418915655
},
"features": {
"term": "fucking",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.00390625,
"share60": 0.014861294583883751,
"total15": 383,
"total60": 1513,
"momentum": 0.26284722222222223,
"diversity": 0.7727272727272727,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 22,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 17
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 241,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999695150462963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.30083297418915655
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 05:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.489
Log loss1.201
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002500413291453133,
"shareRatio": 2.42781194487376,
"totalAfter": 48392,
"shareBefore": 0.0010222761096450562,
"totalBefore": 42063,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 121,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 43
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "fucking" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.25% (+145%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "fucking" (24H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
67597aaf03956bc2ba78aed387726c20c2faf5270d21660585424847ad09dd2ePrevious hash
b0d79845eb5f3c02408d7f8b99d014b15abc70e0b2b9a0c4b6bdb7c5650b1156