Will "tickets" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1513 launches in the last hour referenced "tickets" (6 distinct creators, rank #187). Last 15m momentum 0.91×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.0944691873837599,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45423830159968037
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tickets",
    "rank60": 187,
    "share15": 0.00390625,
    "share60": 0.0042932628797886395,
    "total15": 383,
    "total60": 1513,
    "momentum": 0.9098557692307692,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999695150462963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45423830159968037
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00006199371796991238,
  "shareRatio": 0.26454418937701196,
  "totalAfter": 48392,
  "shareBefore": 0.0002615124931650144,
  "totalBefore": 42063,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity