Ledger / Prediction #2106 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (42 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.53×.

Made2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.4234249232633565,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6443634641633691
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.052901023890784986,
    "share60": 0.03463960811756473,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 1.527183093735995,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 42
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976913888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6443634641633691
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.415

Log loss1.034

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.028735632183908046,
  "shareRatio": 0.8436622169189848,
  "totalAfter": 1218,
  "shareBefore": 0.034193998604326585,
  "totalBefore": 1433,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.42% → 2.87% (-16%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed +0.42 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash91ceddaf4c1b202848ebd54ebb797e5b710456e14c9655cb5eb0df57f5c6ba91

Previous hash5d527dce02fec07fcad3cb1a4f5ee18becd14da0dcbc90284e0cdc8e3dd7e450