Ledger / Prediction #2107 · narrative · 1H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1428 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (29 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.56×.

Made2026-10-12 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -0.5804061462051978,
      "diversity": 0.26
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4129842423277145
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.011945392491467578,
    "share60": 0.021343596920923722,
    "total15": 292,
    "total60": 1428,
    "momentum": 0.5596710121412186,
    "diversity": 0.9666666666666667,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976913888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9976913888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4129842423277145
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.171

Log loss0.533

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0180623973727422,
  "shareRatio": 0.8678169421320888,
  "totalAfter": 1218,
  "shareBefore": 0.0209351011863224,
  "totalBefore": 1433,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 30
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "agent" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.09% → 1.81% (-14%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "agent" (1H). momentum contributed -0.58 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashda87ad78258fb510c4989cdbb4371b3e95a0b1848847955d9971a49508afccb3

Previous hash91ceddaf4c1b202848ebd54ebb797e5b710456e14c9655cb5eb0df57f5c6ba91