Ledger / Prediction #2123 · narrative · 1H

Will "crypto" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

39 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "crypto" (31 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.56×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3081185600543319,
      "momentum": 0.44305218438540694,
      "diversity": 0.05384615384615379
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6236375945664819
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "crypto",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.04692556634304207,
    "share60": 0.030129672006102212,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 1.5574536069804596,
    "diversity": 0.7948717948717948,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 39,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946475
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6236375945664819
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.142

Log loss0.472

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.10825545171339564,
  "shareRatio": 3.6910505836575878,
  "totalAfter": 1284,
  "shareBefore": 0.029061102831594635,
  "totalBefore": 1342,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 139,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 39
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 62% that "crypto" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.91% → 10.83% (+273%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "crypto" (1H). momentum contributed +0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash088f8ad9754a1e0d76f05ca8a95512f4ca2724e88c0465fd31211766ed217ddf

Previous hash20cdeacc2b1e9ceef83d295b7a28d0f122cd612fca1225ed71a9ef09d5b49677