Ledger / Prediction #2130 · narrative · 24H

Will "ponzify" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "ponzify" (12 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": -2.446616091244672,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.17427002462424146
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ponzify",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
    "share60": 0.018688024408848206,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 0.08658609074697841,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769791666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.17427002462424146
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.030

Log loss0.192

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000185662712738525,
  "shareRatio": 0.310591741955171,
  "totalAfter": 48475,
  "shareBefore": 0.0006190770989094719,
  "totalBefore": 41998,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "ponzify" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.02% (-70%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ponzify" (24H). momentum contributed -2.45 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8231e2cae8f68974adad1ec9d56bac5cb9a11aab16737a0c46215df223bee648

Previous hashbd6ac92017a37911966267c3d91d048bf21584303573115b334ce800a86caa99