Ledger / Prediction #2131 · narrative · 24H

Will "aladeen" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

21 of 1310 launches in the last hour referenced "aladeen" (6 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

Made2026-10-12 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.21526267879339842,
      "momentum": -2.315995908827608,
      "diversity": -0.5571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16397589054444503
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "aladeen",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.0016181229773462784,
    "share60": 0.016399694889397406,
    "total15": 308,
    "total60": 1310,
    "momentum": 0.09866787085120796,
    "diversity": 0.2857142857142857,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 21,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 167,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946475,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997769791666666
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16397589054444503
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.699

Log loss1.808

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015471892728210418,
  "shareRatio": 3.0424304906575688,
  "totalAfter": 48475,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005000238106576503,
  "totalBefore": 41998,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "aladeen" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.05% → 0.15% (+209%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "aladeen" (24H). momentum contributed -2.32 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 84% and wrong on "aladeen". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash677133d4dd6b7ad72b01f96c3195e3162a2240dcfe82ad31f35c4fb6473df203

Previous hash8231e2cae8f68974adad1ec9d56bac5cb9a11aab16737a0c46215df223bee648