Ledger / Prediction #2142 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (30 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

Made2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.2895427544631989,
      "diversity": 0.1285714285714285
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5490914593759406
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03925619834710744,
    "share60": 0.029387417218543047,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.3358165522057968,
    "diversity": 0.8571428571428571,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986428240740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5490914593759406
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.203

Log loss0.599

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04061696658097686,
  "shareRatio": 1.2161763316460852,
  "totalAfter": 9725,
  "shareBefore": 0.033386496544391284,
  "totalBefore": 9405,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 395,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 314
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.34% → 4.06% (+22%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (6H). volume contributed +0.29 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash268f15bb1a2beeadcad843c9031c3da46f1ccd5f435f0e76a4df43ca0469d158

Previous hash7a74b1827a27f09f9999c0fd23a26137a55a24e90291c704f5102f0ebd470a8f