Ledger / Prediction #2144 · narrative · 6H

Will "project" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "project" (5 distinct creators, rank #131). Last 15m momentum 1.92×.

Made2026-10-12 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 12:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.6522722073106376,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5611262918910863
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "project",
    "rank60": 131,
    "share15": 0.010330578512396695,
    "share60": 0.005380794701986755,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 1.9198982835346474,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986428240740741
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5611262918910863
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 12:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.315

Log loss0.823

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016452442159383034,
  "shareRatio": 0.7783963527482283,
  "totalAfter": 9725,
  "shareBefore": 0.002126528442317916,
  "totalBefore": 9405,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "project" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.21% → 0.16% (-23%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "project" (6H). momentum contributed +0.65 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash07e8f1c97ea21fba464a60b6f0ba3c6bde027531ebcc8f1c9d053167b39e9b8f

Previous hash14c18486fc366c801dbb8150d8542291c58536afd67dedbc8086640022fa49bf