Will "sirius" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1207 launches in the last hour referenced "sirius" (15 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": -2.324041980386252,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19289416321123798
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sirius",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.002066115702479339,
    "share60": 0.021109271523178808,
    "total15": 241,
    "total60": 1207,
    "momentum": 0.09787716739588398,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 15
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 179,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918569444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996607060185185
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19289416321123798
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0001237828024426473,
  "shareRatio": 0.17269820312338827,
  "totalAfter": 48472,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007645442599450484,
  "totalBefore": 41855,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity