GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2157 · narrative · 6H

Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (18 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": -1.5435651682833926,
      "diversity": -0.49245283018867925
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18583211564474267
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fund",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.008928571428571428,
    "share60": 0.041796875,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 0.2136181575433912,
    "diversity": 0.33962264150943394,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997109259259259
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18583211564474267
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.663
Log loss1.683
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.010956175298804782,
  "shareRatio": 1.0436201421886004,
  "totalAfter": 10040,
  "shareBefore": 0.010492505353319057,
  "totalBefore": 9340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 110,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 98
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "fund" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.05% → 1.10% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "fund" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6da4902e04bc85ded6d33466cd7bfdc3733014c0f8e6d9905ce7e34967da47a7
Previous hasha7ee9b798a340bb8f99ef37b3eb4d4ba12996206a75847c9cfae0312a688fa4b