Ledger / Prediction #2160 · narrative · 6H

Will "send" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1279 launches in the last hour referenced "send" (6 distinct creators, rank #72). Last 15m momentum 1.55×.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.43613911529297933,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.499253745684067
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "send",
    "rank60": 72,
    "share15": 0.011479591836734694,
    "share60": 0.007421875,
    "total15": 391,
    "total60": 1279,
    "momentum": 1.5467239527389904,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982655555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997109259259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.499253745684067
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.251

Log loss0.695

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036852589641434264,
  "shareRatio": 1.0734067247362737,
  "totalAfter": 10040,
  "shareBefore": 0.003426124197002141,
  "totalBefore": 9340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 37,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "send" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.34% → 0.37% (+8%). PARTIAL.

— "send" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1b20977ebef1a0fadad36e7e7a6c4c069043a16881a1127281113480603f196e

Previous hashecabbdf49101c9b3a022141f44367e0708253069c8f84b3842cea5bcb86a3460