Ledger / Prediction #2168 · token · 6H

Will $LDI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "inu". Creator launched 9 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "U6XxtDo7iGAPvUBDnmFDEbD2KL2w3nGfNQFm73opump",
    "name": "Lazy Doge Inu",
    "symbol": "LDI",
    "hotTerms": [
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1073.663302624016,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 9
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 510,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 13:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.939

Log loss3.477

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T06:37:50.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 146.06789530526584,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 25808.26016318015,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1073.663302624016,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $LDI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $146, graduated). INCORRECT.

— serialCreator misled on $LDI (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 97% and wrong on $LDI. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash38675455267a4dcf02b7219b1c5d01763175136f7d04828cccee1be89034c547

Previous hashc4fed10d1b17dd5c1c4c7d42f6f2dc0cdb4d65e0774fb1f88aa15e48e5ea19b7