Ledger / Prediction #2170 · narrative · 1H

Will "mirage" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

80 of 1421 launches in the last hour referenced "mirage" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

Made2026-10-12 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4158883083359672,
      "momentum": -3.6145983630054204,
      "diversity": -0.7649999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mirage",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.001524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.05661040787623066,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1421,
    "momentum": 0.026927738221481597,
    "diversity": 0.1125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 80,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957627777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.007044266982155181,
  "totalAfter": 1259,
  "shareBefore": 0.056022408963585436,
  "totalBefore": 1428,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 80
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "mirage" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.60% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mirage" (1H). momentum contributed -3.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash17247ce3bd3bd7b3f00280d620213a53003a2b36c908e0fbd62db43a8c4e7bbe

Previous hash0ddbe43817ea73064ae13d939cc24bb43608f4bbe4fe64bf2eee648159ed1636