Will "miragelsd" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

80 of 1421 launches in the last hour referenced "miragelsd" (9 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.03×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4158883083359672,
      "momentum": -3.6145983630054204,
      "diversity": -0.7649999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09263691034152659
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "miragelsd",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.001524390243902439,
    "share60": 0.05661040787623066,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1421,
    "momentum": 0.026927738221481597,
    "diversity": 0.1125,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 80,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 169,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957627777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999823449074074
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09263691034152659
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000020764119601328905,
  "shareRatio": 0.015852509858033,
  "totalAfter": 48160,
  "shareBefore": 0.0019528459156942129,
  "totalBefore": 41990,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity