Ledger / Prediction #2185 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

63 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (38 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3800545220936148,
      "momentum": -0.00896940129311853,
      "diversity": -0.17619047619047623
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4737478243162959
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.04982817869415808,
    "share60": 0.05027711797307997,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 0.9910707037908922,
    "diversity": 0.6031746031746031,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 63,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 153,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924186111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4737478243162959
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.224

Log loss0.642

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0351634793337446,
  "shareRatio": 0.7101177704204977,
  "totalAfter": 1621,
  "shareBefore": 0.04956726986624705,
  "totalBefore": 1271,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 57,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 63
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.96% → 3.52% (-29%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.18 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash123853a49c66d4633bc9ad78aaf10997b98e6e373fdb72e03cd92ad29701f85e

Previous hash71c703e18cc114d1d0c564751e433a831ed8d86c08f456a1a37f1134f62675d2