GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2186 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -1.3885483510414847,
      "diversity": -0.2302325581395349
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16853908949450705
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.00859106529209622,
    "share60": 0.0344418052256532,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 0.24943713710155235,
    "diversity": 0.5581395348837209,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 24
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 153,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924186111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16853908949450705
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.028
Log loss0.185
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.030845157310302282,
  "shareRatio": 0.9104128576895276,
  "totalAfter": 1621,
  "shareBefore": 0.03383162863886703,
  "totalBefore": 1271,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.38% → 3.08% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash411d4958b28680aaaddc8bb586ba0698928fe8d5f20b263eefb1e55f1674467e
Previous hash123853a49c66d4633bc9ad78aaf10997b98e6e373fdb72e03cd92ad29701f85e