Ledger / Prediction #2186 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 17% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (24 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.25×.
Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": -1.3885483510414847,
"diversity": -0.2302325581395349
},
"rawProbability": 0.16853908949450705
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.00859106529209622,
"share60": 0.0344418052256532,
"total15": 290,
"total60": 1262,
"momentum": 0.24943713710155235,
"diversity": 0.5581395348837209,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 24
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 153,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924186111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.16853908949450705
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 09:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.028
Log loss0.185
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.030845157310302282,
"shareRatio": 0.9104128576895276,
"totalAfter": 1621,
"shareBefore": 0.03383162863886703,
"totalBefore": 1271,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 50,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 43
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 17% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.38% → 3.08% (-9%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
411d4958b28680aaaddc8bb586ba0698928fe8d5f20b263eefb1e55f1674467ePrevious hash
123853a49c66d4633bc9ad78aaf10997b98e6e373fdb72e03cd92ad29701f85e