Ledger / Prediction #219 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 26% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

61 of 2401 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (45 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.33×.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3752153927608816,
      "momentum": -1.0994823967298906,
      "diversity": -0.014754098360655686
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.26133891703857554
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.008527131782945736,
    "share60": 0.02560366361365529,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2401,
    "momentum": 0.3330434234574904,
    "diversity": 0.7377049180327869,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 61,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 45
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 347,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99686,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99686
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.26133891703857554
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.068

Log loss0.303

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013567438148443736,
  "shareRatio": 0.5406131125531439,
  "totalAfter": 2506,
  "shareBefore": 0.02525879917184265,
  "totalBefore": 2415,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 34,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 26% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.53% → 1.36% (-46%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -1.10 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0336c22bf44331d8b45741e34bc3903be9752c90a1c40bcac9a498c9a5ad71e2

Previous hash5ef72b725e85876b7889f5c6854a7e1306caff78f06c7de8417dfa16a68163c3