Ledger / Prediction #2191 · narrative · 6H

Will "lma" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "lma" (11 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.82×.

Made2026-10-12 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -0.19708590840991239,
      "diversity": -0.1666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39648594209350807
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lma",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.012027491408934709,
    "share60": 0.014647664291369754,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 0.8211200891613264,
    "diversity": 0.6111111111111112,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 153,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924186111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987364351851852
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39648594209350807
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.157

Log loss0.505

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00045167118337850043,
  "shareRatio": 0.20031172999644997,
  "totalAfter": 11070,
  "shareBefore": 0.0024227041993539456,
  "totalBefore": 8668,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 21
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "lma" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.05% (-81%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "lma" (6H). momentum contributed -0.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash96fa9ae1a80602b52876cfe7752be438248d12065c26e1e5864d34b6d5d107b6

Previous hash5fb90cf3480c357eee8a57f5df4b6090c629893d7b2f6b7581187522153c557d