GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2212 · narrative · 24H

Will "brain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1256 launches in the last hour referenced "brain" (5 distinct creators, rank #135). Last 15m momentum 0.94×.

Made2026-10-12 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.06543310894137963,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45444752299675245
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "brain",
    "rank60": 135,
    "share15": 0.004098360655737705,
    "share60": 0.004375497215592681,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1256,
    "momentum": 0.936661698956781,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 165,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9979788888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999915787037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45444752299675245
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 08:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.298
Log loss0.789
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002203742203742204,
  "shareRatio": 1.0917152760073192,
  "totalAfter": 48100,
  "shareBefore": 0.0020162725051592854,
  "totalBefore": 42157,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 106,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "brain" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.20% → 0.22% (+9%). PARTIAL.

— "brain" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha45760129c76d1b1ee63d22ffcd1bcee2e9e75968ece9a65b8e61022093ebcbd
Previous hash57681bef244df44944d351e499f275977ed7377a4b2abee7fe1c0f513a655cc0