Ledger / Prediction #2218 · narrative · 1H

Will "ploy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

128 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "ploy" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4863888527228275,
      "momentum": -1.2639017924187776,
      "diversity": -0.553125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1637429886215577
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ploy",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.022565320665083134,
    "share60": 0.07986326911124922,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.2825494237363328,
    "diversity": 0.2890625,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 128,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.995755,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.995755
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1637429886215577
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.027

Log loss0.179

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.021725636250775917,
  "shareRatio": 0.26756721591806765,
  "totalAfter": 1611,
  "shareBefore": 0.08204811844540408,
  "totalBefore": 1621,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 35,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "ploy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.20% → 2.17% (-74%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "ploy" (1H). momentum contributed -1.26 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash37e3605db2c8aebb1dc040d24fa1693b70bd82758fdc953bb4caccc9212ca95f

Previous hasha1cdf475776e89ce8951ab31a04adc3a5e65653aefc88478a9d8f07d1dc33855