Ledger / Prediction #2223 · narrative · 6H
Will "sai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
105 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "sai" (21 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 3.82×.
Made2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.45667836565851344,
"momentum": 1.3407353133100017,
"diversity": -0.66
},
"rawProbability": 0.621563450293279
},
"features": {
"term": "sai",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.2505938242280285,
"share60": 0.06556867619639528,
"total15": 420,
"total60": 1608,
"momentum": 3.8218527315914486,
"diversity": 0.2,
"launches15": 105,
"launches60": 105,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 184,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.995755,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992925
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.621563450293279
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.386
Log loss0.972
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0016552180749813787,
"shareRatio": 0.1277998455257641,
"totalAfter": 12083,
"shareBefore": 0.01321689874911494,
"totalBefore": 8474,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 20,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 112
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "sai" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.32% → 0.17% (-87%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sai" (6H). momentum contributed +1.34 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
3da9577d7c1f410e6c649779cdc3387e946fbd99ef3bba5b1e2370d78b9cc765Previous hash
535fdf0fae967318fe39923f61d218d5606adcc70f9e83583b921bc8f4d6b7e0