Ledger / Prediction #2225 · narrative · 24H

Will "ploy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

128 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "ploy" (37 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-12 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4863888527228275,
      "momentum": -1.2639017924187776,
      "diversity": -0.553125
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2758145133593347
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ploy",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.022565320665083134,
    "share60": 0.07986326911124922,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.2825494237363328,
    "diversity": 0.2890625,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 128,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.995755,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999823125
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2758145133593347
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.076

Log loss0.323

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002867728633328449,
  "shareRatio": 0.9144059836035116,
  "totalAfter": 47773,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031358309952137318,
  "totalBefore": 42413,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 137,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 133
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "ploy" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.29% (-9%). PARTIAL.

— "ploy" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc3498513cfd03ce6a14a44f9322225c99c96b0f365f96b5c6cdecccfcf2f880f

Previous hashbc482079eba1f92a298f4bbcb5d139f869cef5a9769d341d4769dcc51002ccae