Will "moodeng" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "moodeng" (8 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -0.8764899307328871,
      "diversity": -0.708
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.28504937298164146
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moodeng",
    "rank60": 7,
    "share15": 0.013064133016627079,
    "share60": 0.031385954008701054,
    "total15": 420,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.4162413866089697,
    "diversity": 0.16,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 184,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.995755,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999823125
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.28504937298164146
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00016745860632574885,
  "shareRatio": 0.12899731964495223,
  "totalAfter": 47773,
  "shareBefore": 0.0013675052460330559,
  "totalBefore": 42413,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity