Ledger / Prediction #2236 · narrative · 1H

Will "vibes" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "vibes" (5 distinct creators, rank #52). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -0.32078896634348925,
      "diversity": -0.5666666666666667
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2698634352076109
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "vibes",
    "rank60": 52,
    "share15": 0.0077951002227171495,
    "share60": 0.010743321718931475,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 0.7255763558658882,
    "diversity": 0.2777777777777778,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9932416666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2698634352076109
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 10:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.073

Log loss0.315

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005579665220086794,
  "shareRatio": 0.550420308784621,
  "totalAfter": 1613,
  "shareBefore": 0.010410641989589358,
  "totalBefore": 1729,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "vibes" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.04% → 0.56% (-46%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "vibes" (1H). diversity contributed -0.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4f04b5b218e87041b2b98173f7c4766005b34d3a52a2c196befb7c7171a5a447

Previous hash0b1f27d32e10923c5a0401f2412c261e61700413bc2b1f687baa7d40b7f56d11