Will "poodle" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

88 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "poodle" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.66×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43018483530661594,
      "momentum": 1.297967779594666,
      "diversity": -0.8318181818181819
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5811349239554332
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "poodle",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.18819599109131402,
    "share60": 0.05139372822299652,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 3.6618474198784488,
    "diversity": 0.056818181818181816,
    "launches15": 84,
    "launches60": 88,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988736111111111
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5811349239554332
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016038492381716118,
  "shareRatio": 0.15327888570335638,
  "totalAfter": 12470,
  "shareBefore": 0.010666979252139257,
  "totalBefore": 8531,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 20,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity