Ledger / Prediction #2239 · narrative · 6H

Will "moodeng" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

50 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "moodeng" (8 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34538776394910686,
      "momentum": -3.2709017195958374,
      "diversity": -0.708
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05502037636666291
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moodeng",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0011135857461024498,
    "share60": 0.02932636469221835,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 0.03797217138194889,
    "diversity": 0.16,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 50,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988736111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05502037636666291
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.057

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00024057738572574178,
  "shareRatio": 0.0439360600997985,
  "totalAfter": 12470,
  "shareBefore": 0.0063298558199507676,
  "totalBefore": 8531,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that "moodeng" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.02% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "moodeng" (6H). momentum contributed -3.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash18af1fe8c4ebb353b2fced718fd4abb881d4edf8d5a59f40691e5612ed4f1c81

Previous hash0d5bb3fb71d20d4a8aef132aa4e89944a39b36e0efa428954a1d6c6c8bc1c496