Ledger / Prediction #2240 · narrative · 6H

Will "home" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1721 launches in the last hour referenced "home" (4 distinct creators, rank #223). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-12 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.044935813115161,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44360475713455366
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "home",
    "rank60": 223,
    "share15": 0.0033407572383073497,
    "share60": 0.003193960511033682,
    "total15": 448,
    "total60": 1721,
    "momentum": 1.045960720793683,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 176,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932416666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988736111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44360475713455366
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 15:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.197

Log loss0.586

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002566158781074579,
  "shareRatio": 0.5357779445904861,
  "totalAfter": 12470,
  "shareBefore": 0.004806001641073731,
  "totalBefore": 8531,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 41
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "home" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.48% → 0.26% (-47%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "home" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash559b170f417fe2da118ee754d7e58f63682a84bbf6e939048bbadb53d4ecc48e

Previous hash18af1fe8c4ebb353b2fced718fd4abb881d4edf8d5a59f40691e5612ed4f1c81