Ledger / Prediction #2249 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

122 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (12 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4791874698448734,
      "momentum": -1.3367658884205444,
      "diversity": -0.781967213114754
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1256977821237762
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.02,
    "share60": 0.07613424487259167,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.2626938775510204,
    "diversity": 0.09836065573770492,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 122,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985297222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1256977821237762
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.016

Log loss0.134

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010671688637790333,
  "shareRatio": 0.14447033518551713,
  "totalAfter": 1593,
  "shareBefore": 0.07572936064556177,
  "totalBefore": 1611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 122
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 13% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.57% → 1.07% (-86%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -1.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe4fba0759c62a63f7ec3df8900b645fe850f71122941b432ae254cfc4ace989e

Previous hash6ab17eeee2d40f4bdd04cb8574ce925cd5e99cf19b177920d6171bbc5f339400