Ledger / Prediction #2250 · narrative · 1H

Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

60 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (16 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3727359974682,
      "momentum": -1.7299105121406684,
      "diversity": -0.58
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09646152104912223
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.006666666666666667,
    "share60": 0.03760099440646364,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.17730027548209368,
    "diversity": 0.26666666666666666,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 60,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 16
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985297222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09646152104912223
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01694915254237288,
  "shareRatio": 0.45967833922664536,
  "totalAfter": 1593,
  "shareBefore": 0.037243947858473,
  "totalBefore": 1611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 60
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "dog" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.72% → 1.69% (-54%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dog" (1H). momentum contributed -1.73 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashbb7508fdff3045edb1f541c570accd267c4beba6462d7c11a88a26d163a5fdbd

Previous hashe4fba0759c62a63f7ec3df8900b645fe850f71122941b432ae254cfc4ace989e