Ledger / Prediction #2252 · narrative · 1H

Will "wizard" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "wizard" (5 distinct creators, rank #246). Last 15m momentum 0.39×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9414531517763982,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2806069061737007
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wizard",
    "rank60": 246,
    "share15": 0.0013333333333333333,
    "share60": 0.003418272218769422,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.39006060606060605,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9985297222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2806069061737007
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.079

Log loss0.329

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012554927809165098,
  "shareRatio": 0.45967833922664536,
  "totalAfter": 1593,
  "shareBefore": 0.0031036623215394167,
  "totalBefore": 1611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 5
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "wizard" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.13% (-60%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "wizard" (1H). momentum contributed -0.94 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb49f434b663cb934e8f244c1ab004544a45c7ba7824ddf386d824d4f1588b292

Previous hash74c491160a7f970fbab71e3668ae1ec4a0a65132ae1d95a7debf861a1587a616