Will "robinhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

31 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "robinhood" (19 distinct creators, rank #20). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27368239380765685,
      "momentum": -1.5880803167014506,
      "diversity": -0.16451612903225804
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2082939556704261
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "robinhood",
    "rank60": 20,
    "share15": 0.004,
    "share60": 0.019577377252952145,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.20431746031746031,
    "diversity": 0.6129032258064516,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 31,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997549537037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2082939556704261
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004794155695913553,
  "shareRatio": 0.4333631918549318,
  "totalAfter": 13141,
  "shareBefore": 0.011093136122024498,
  "totalBefore": 8654,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 96
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity