Ledger / Prediction #2256 · narrative · 6H

Will "knight" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "knight" (5 distinct creators, rank #127). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 16:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.2781589343661339,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36578068775184347
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "knight",
    "rank60": 127,
    "share15": 0.004,
    "share60": 0.0052827843380981974,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.7571764705882353,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997549537037037
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36578068775184347
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 16:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.134

Log loss0.455

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003804885472947264,
  "shareRatio": 0.23368810167844042,
  "totalAfter": 13141,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017333025190663276,
  "totalBefore": 8654,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "knight" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.04% (-78%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "knight" (6H). momentum contributed -0.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc420bbc2f571f377faf7646c3679876420bc45f273cae13da59a32e44036370e

Previous hashf6135248b4681386c62682db1d2b98a4815f2e093bdd768d12864372781aee59