Ledger / Prediction #2258 · narrative · 24H

Will "stay" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "stay" (4 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -2.861045992514338,
      "diversity": -0.7702702702702703
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12286797353153592
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stay",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0013333333333333333,
    "share60": 0.023306401491609695,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.057208888888888886,
    "diversity": 0.10810810810810811,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999938738425926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12286797353153592
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.015

Log loss0.131

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0020966136512844406,
  "shareRatio": 0.5729730474711415,
  "totalAfter": 47219,
  "shareBefore": 0.0036659972913650586,
  "totalBefore": 42826,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 99,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 157
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "stay" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.21% (-43%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "stay" (24H). momentum contributed -2.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashce87e424e14226e5abdcefd52f51e773a271661b209c247d5e5b7f227db0b285

Previous hash78649787ee457580b3c7d5cfa454201f9a67ab4b26aef0cb9631cfda4b48bbec