Will "pool" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 1608 launches in the last hour referenced "pool" (21 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -1.1388125859348932,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3108694058617112
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pool",
    "rank60": 18,
    "share15": 0.006666666666666667,
    "share60": 0.020820385332504663,
    "total15": 374,
    "total60": 1608,
    "momentum": 0.3201990049751244,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 21
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 189,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999938738425926
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3108694058617112
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.001969546157267202,
  "shareRatio": 0.6448779517604676,
  "totalAfter": 47219,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030588894596740297,
  "totalBefore": 42826,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 93,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 131
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity