Ledger / Prediction #2261 · token · 1H

Will $GrenCAT still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 26m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "cat". Creator launched 19 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Dts4fdGMXWJdBUg3BL3MLW1CjbDP7QhHdFr6PqNxpump",
    "name": "green cat",
    "symbol": "GrenCAT",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 26,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 1233.685825092466,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 19
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 557,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-12T09:35:58.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 22.401855828963516,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6380.901310425468,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 1233.685825092466,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $GrenCAT would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $22, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $GrenCAT (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6e33f8b5a5a3eca8185fe879f25a76caeacfc9810a3604d5d29df335a144eb8c

Previous hash1560a2a2c4ad10fb51617177a86462b7d7a9e27fac6fd1dc8f0ae1c39c789a4d