Ledger / Prediction #2268 · narrative · 1H

Will "moves" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1599 launches in the last hour referenced "moves" (4 distinct creators, rank #104). Last 15m momentum 0.71×.

Made2026-10-12 10:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-12 10:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": -0.34077842784742435,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2951964835239574
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "moves",
    "rank60": 104,
    "share15": 0.003778337531486146,
    "share60": 0.0053125,
    "total15": 396,
    "total60": 1599,
    "momentum": 0.7112164765150392,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 203,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957688888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957688888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2951964835239574
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.087

Log loss0.350

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005425935973955507,
  "shareRatio": 0.15445961464846242,
  "totalAfter": 1843,
  "shareBefore": 0.0049597024178549285,
  "totalBefore": 1613,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 8
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "moves" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.05% (-89%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "moves" (1H). momentum contributed -0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcb905baff16f8e0982aca1f741df7e7a2acc67af8f032094ffb8fdd06d80d2f6

Previous hashc8c96021bd18286657e83d5c1268d1b3aeeb617db47f0c87a4fbf92a0eff0454