Ledger / Prediction #227 · token · 1H

Will $WDOOF still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 16:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 15:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "ET3EKqCLb5byAQ8XvcCAy3hbDNK4mGnfNXW7uxm7pump",
    "name": "WANDOOF",
    "symbol": "WDOOF",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 314,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3166.998105111618,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 799,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T15:45:17.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 1517.4845397070294,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3985.6388758140997,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3166.998105111618,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6333.996210223236
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $WDOOF would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $1,517, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $WDOOF (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash27791ad6a85756ef0a6089666f7a2e4a0c13bba97b14a99978be62c610f7a417

Previous hashb58a499c30c7f9621ac7a376ea8a3a08274bdf373fb333cfe54e6240cb7849ff